The conference on “The Year Ahead: An International Security and Intelligence Outlook for 2016” was held at the Canadian War Museum on December 4th, 2015. The conference was organized by the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs and the Centre for Security, Interlligence and Defence Studies, both at Carleton University.
The conference was a great success, with over 150 people attending, including public servants, academics and students, representatives of the private sector, diplomats, and the interested public.
The intent was to create an opportunity for both public servants and academic experts to discuss the international security challenges that would be facing the Canadian Government and our closest Allies in 2016. It was hoped that this would be the start of an annual dialogue seeking to anticipate events requiring policy work. A number of themes emerged in the course of the presentations and discussions that are summarized in this report on the conference. However, there are some cross-cutting questions that require further consideration:
In confronting new international crises, is Western defence policy facing a choice between the deployment of significant ground combat forces on the one hand, and stand-off war-fighting on the other (including air power, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, Special Operations Forces, cyber, and the use of local proxies)?
Are the ongoing security crises in Afghanistan/Pakistan, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe a distraction from the real strategic challenge facing the West today, i.e., the rise of China?
If the so-called Obama doctrine epitomizes realism and restraint, is it a break with, or a return to, traditional US foreign policy?
The summary that follows only partially captures the richness of the discussion at the conference. None of the statements in this summary should be attributed to any particular speaker. The intent is simply to highlight some of the issues raised, as a reminder for those who attended, and as food for thought for those who were not able to participate.